Rapports et réflexions sur le changement climatique

Historique sur la COP 

La première conférence mondiale sur le climat a été organisée à Genève en 1979, par l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale (OMM) et le Programme des Nations Unies pour l’Environnement (PNUE), auxquels s’était associé le Conseil International des Unions Scientifiques. Elle a marqué le départ d’un programme de recherche climatologique mondial. La 1ère COP s’est tenue à Berlin en 1995. Elle a fixé pour les Parties à la Convention des objectifs chiffrés de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. La seconde COP, quant à elle, s’est déroulée à Genève l’année suivante, après la publication du deuxième rapport du GIEC.

Les prémices d’un engagement planétaire en faveur du climat

Il faudra attendre la 3ème session de la COP au Japon en 1997 pour assister à un véritable engagement des Parties qui adopteront le Protocole de Kyoto. Il visait à réduire d’au moins 5% les émissions de gaz à effet de serre entre 2008 et 2012, par rapport à 1990. Les États-Unis, alors plus grand pays émetteur de gaz à effet de serre, ont signé ce protocole mais ne l’ont pas ratifié. Pour entrer en vigueur, il devait être ratifié par 55 pays développés, générant au moins 55% des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en 1990. Pour atteindre l’objectif du Protocole, les Etats ont négocié la mise en place d’un marché carbone, avec des échanges de droits d’émission des gaz à effet de serre (Crédit carbone ou quotas d’émission).

Des responsabilités différenciées mais un objectif commun

Certains pays développés ont demandé l’égalité des devoirs en matière d’adoption des quotas d’émission. Les pays en voie de développement (représenté notamment par le G77) ont estimé que cette demande venant de pays majoritairement responsables des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, n’était pas appropriée.La COP 7 a eu lieu à Marrakech en 2001. Elle a abouti à la traduction juridique des règles de mise en œuvre du Protocole de Kyoto. Un accord final a proposé des quotas d’émission de gaz à effet de serre avec une option prévoyant la revente de «droits d’émission» entre pays développés et pays du G77 notamment. Cet accord est entré en vigueur en 2005, année pendant laquelle au moins 55 Parties à la Convention-cadre, responsables d’au moins 55% des émissions de CO2, ont signé et déposé leurs instruments de ratification du protocole, et ce suite à la ratification russe.

Réunion des Parties au Protocole de Kyoto

C’est lors de la COP11 à Montréal, que s’est tenue la première rencontre des Parties au Protocole de Kyoto : CMP 1. Depuis, chaque COP est couplée à la réunion des Parties au Protocole de Kyoto.

A Bali, lors de la COP13-CMP3 en 2007, les Parties ont tracé une feuille de route des discussions pour prolonger le Protocole de Kyoto au-delà de 2012.

 

 

 

 

Réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 18% à l’horizon 2020

En 2009, 184 Etats avaient ratifié le protocole de Kyoto à la COP15 à Copenhague. Cette année-là, il fût question pour les Parties à la Convention de renégocier un accord sur le climat qui ferait suite au Protocole de Kyoto dont la première étape prenait fin en 2012. Cependant, l’accord fortement attendu, n’a pas abouti. Le Protocole de Kyoto sera prolongé en 2012, avec l’Amendement de Doha (COP18) qui porte sur la période 2013/2020. Cet amendement prévoit pour les Parties une réduction moyenne de 18% de leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre par rapport à 1990.

A ce jour, 192 Parties (191 États et l’Union Européenne) ont signé et ratifié le Protocole de Kyoto, à l’exception des États-Unis.

 

L’accord de Paris

En décembre 2015, les Parties ont abouti à un accord universel sur le climat lors de la COP 21-CMP 11 : l’Accord de Paris. C’est un accord que l’on peut qualifier d’historique puisqu’il a été adopté à l’unanimité, par les Parties à la Convention. Le premier accord universel sur le climat a été adopté à l’unanimité lors de la COP21, qui s’est déroulée en décembre 2015 à Paris. Cet accord vise à limiter la hausse de la température de la planète « bien en deçà de 2°C », par rapport aux périodes préindustrielles (1880-1899). Pour ce faire, les Etats se sont fixés l’objectif de réduire leurs émissions de CO2 de 50% d’ici à 2050, et de 100% d’ici à 2100. Le texte de l’Accord de Paris a été adopté le 12 décembre 2015 par 195 pays Réorienter l’économie mondiale vers un modèle à bas carbone : telle était la volonté exprimée par les 150 chefs d’Etat présents lors de la COP21. Les enjeux sont importants puisqu’il s’agit de changer de paradigme civilisationnel.

Pour entrer en vigueur, l’Accord doit être ratifié par 55 Etats représentant au moins 55% des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. L’objectif est de limiter le réchauffement climatique à moins de 2°C en visant une réduction de 1,5°C, explicitement mentionnée dans l’Accord de Paris.

Le 22 avril 2016, au siège des Nations Unies à New York, 177 chefs d’état et de gouvernement ont pris part à la Cérémonie de signature de cet accord. Les Parties disposeront d’une année pour le ratifier.

Dans le cadre de ce premier accord universel sur le climat, les Etats sont tenus de contribuer à une atténuation des émissions de Gaz à Effet de Serre et à revoir leurs engagements tous les 5 ans.

Pourquoi faut-il agir ?

L’équilibre de l’écosystème de notre planète est menacé. Plusieurs études scientifiques le prouvent. Les mécanismes naturels qui font vivre la Terre et par là même toutes les espèces vivantes, sont déréglés. La planète vit un réchauffement climatique sans précédent, selon les différentes études réalisées ces 25 dernières années, notamment par le GIEC.

Le Groupe Intergouvernemental des Experts en Climat (GIEC) a été créé en 1988 par l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale (OMM) et le Programme des Nations Unies pour l’Environnement (PNUE). Le GIEC est reconnu comme organe de support scientifique du secrétariat de la Convention. Depuis 1990, ce groupe publie un rapport tous les 5 ans.Le GIEC rassemble d’éminents experts scientifiques Les experts du GIEC sont d’éminents scientifiques sélectionnés parmi les plus reconnus au monde. Ils sont organisés en comité de lecture qui passe au crible les études scientifiques sur la question du climat pour en dégager une synthèse pertinente afin d’éclairer les décideurs. Ils évaluent d’un point de vue scientifique, l’influence de l’Homme sur les changements climatiques, en mesurent aussi les risques et proposent des stratégies d’adaptation et d’atténuation des gaz à effet de serre.

Le réchauffement climatique résulte de l’activité de l’Homme

Dès leur premier rapport en 1990, (intitulé First Assessment Report), les scientifiques ont démontré que les émissions résultant de l’activité humaine augmentent les concentrations des gaz à effet de serre, dont le dioxyde de carbone, le méthane et les chlorofluorocarbones (CFCs) dans l’atmosphère.

Dans son dernier rapport de 2013 (AR5 : Assessment Report 5), le GIEC précise l’impact du changement climatique sur les surfaces terrestres et océaniques, ainsi que ses conséquences directes sur la diminution de la couverture neigeuse et la perte de masse des calottes glaciaires. Au cours des 10 dernières années, la calotte glaciaire au Groenland a diminué de 215 milliards de tonnes par an.  Depuis 1979, la surface de la banquise arctique diminue de 3,5 à 4,1% par décennie.

Les scientifiques prédisent des vagues de chaleur plus fréquentes

Les experts signalent une élévation du niveau des mers et des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère. Chacune des trois dernières décennies a été plus chaude que la précédente, et plus chaude que toutes les décennies antérieures.

Ainsi, l’année écoulée a été la plus chaude jamais enregistrée.

« Les vagues de chaleur vont probablement se produire plus fréquemment et durer plus longtemps. Avec le réchauffement de la Terre, nous nous attendons à voir les régions actuellement humides recevoir davantage de précipitations et les régions sèches en recevoir moins », prévient l’AR5.

Le prochain rapport du GIEC sera présenté en 2018. Ce sixième rapport sera dédié aux conséquences d’un réchauffement planétaire supérieur à 1,5 °C par rapport aux périodes pré-industrielles.

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